FIGAROVOX/MAINTENANCE – For the editor of Political and parliamentary analysis, the result of the legislative elections shows the extent of the rejection of Emmanuel Macron. It provides a more representative image of the country’s political state than the presidential, he explained.
Arnaud Benedetti is an associate professor at the University of Paris-Sorbonne and editor-in-chief of the Political and Parliamentary Review. He published How did politicians die? – The great sickness of power (Cerf editions, November 2021).
FIGAROVOX. – As the presidential majority welcomed two months ago in a historic re -election of the President of the Republic, the results of the legislative elections have greatly slowed this victory. How do you view this chiaroscuro situation?
Arnaud BENEDETTI. – This is an unprecedented situation under the Fifth Republic; not just because the president does not have an absolute majority – this is what happened then, in 1967 and 1988, but because relative majority is a concept regarding this very correlated second round. It is more accurate to say that on the night of the second round there was no clear majority, a hypothesis we thought on Political and parliamentary analysis. At this point, the President of the Republic is an impeded President, who is calm if you will. He is the symbol of the accelerating crisis of the regime that he has ossified by his ambivalences. For the first time the Fifth Republic has failed to stabilize a political situation, it no longer absorbs shocks, it has even been overshadowed by the political anomie made up of the crisis of representation. This is a fundamental fact of our democratic life that has only just taken place.
SEE ALSO – Legislative 2022: “Elisabeth Borne’s legitimacy rises tonight”, analyzes Arnaud Benedetti
Do you think the group is “Together!” would a coalition government form or would the agreements be preferred to be made on a case-by-case basis, per bill?
This election reveals the very artificial nature of the result of the presidential election; the reality of the country at the political level is a result of these legislative elections, which are subject to abstention, which is synonymous with distrust of the ruling class on the one hand and the fragmentation of political offers on the other. Macronism is not a reality of the majority. He was able to hide it until now; This is no longer the case today. Macron has to compose but the problem is he doesn’t know how to compose. This failure was clear to him, he faced all the opposition from France and Navarre who were now in a position to block him at the parliamentary level. De Gaulle’s institutions could do nothing for him. It is from this perspective the first since 1958. For the first time under the Fifth Republic, the Head of State is faced with a majority that is not impossible to find but impossible, except by pretending to be a council president. Fourth. Republic.
The French carried out a quiet revolution, in the astronomical sense, a return to the cultural fundamentals of parliamentary democracies against the entrepreneurial culture.
Through an unusual “historical deception”, the French lowered “Jupiter” from his pedestal, by destroying his legitimacy nearly two months after his re -election and by forcing him to do the his most hated: the culture of requiring negotiation that is the opposite of this managerial, “anti-political” culture in which it is childish. In a way, the French carried out a quiet revolution, in the astronomical sense, a return to the cultural fundamentals of parliamentary democracies against the culture of entrepreneurial. The country, in its contradictions, remembers that it is a country and not a start-up.
Does the hypothesis of a coalition with Les Républicains seem possible to you? Wouldn’t the party risk being completely absorbed?
Christian Jacob clearly closed the door on this hypothesis on Sunday night. Other Republican leaders have no interest, or vocation to be auxiliaries of a liner broken by the legislative iceberg. We must go beyond the electoral adjustment at night and consider first of all inflation, the possible recession to come and the debt will have social effects that are perhaps more complex and more painful than what could be. let us think at this stage; we must also remember that the crisis of representation in which this election is the result is not yet done in producing its effects. We can deduce from these two parameters that we are likely to enter into a crisis of the regime that is far from giving its full verdict.
So maybe there will be debate and temptation to some LR to join the majority. Aside from the fact that it is a matter of short -term ignorance of reality, an alliance of this kind implies a change of majority leader. Macron’s defeat was not directly to his prime minister; Macron sold him as the “left”, he himself sold himself like this, Macron himself wanted to paint his government team to the left of the National Education appointment of a minister who didn’t bring him any matter of politics. The search for a compromise with some Republicans will involve cardinal adjustments and raise the question of the retention of Elisabeth Borne, who has been severely demonetized since Sunday night. The weakness of his personal success in the nearly winning constituency underscores the jamming of the majority machine as a whole.
The RN puts Macron in the face of his failure, he who since 2017 has made the reflux of this party the criterion of his success.
The National Rally is getting a larger number of representatives than expected and, for the first time in this way of voting, will have a group in the National Assembly. How do you interpret this result?
This is the main lesson tonight. The development of the RN is the logical consequence of its presidential dynamic. The Gordian knot of the voting system was dramatically cut by the RN. It was the revenge of Marine Le Pen who, through his tactical skill, managed to avoid the bronze of the uninominal majority ballot in two rounds. This result can even be described as historic. The RN carefully makes more or less equal play in rebellious France and with its roaring communication, it is ahead of Les Républicains, it is evolving geographically in a sustainable way, winning (what a symbol!) In first constituency to elect a Communist representative, at Marmande in Lot-et-Garonne. The RN puts Macron in the face of his failure, he who since 2017 has made the reflux of this party the criterion of his success. Macron failed in his goal so he allowed the RN to have an impressive parliamentary group, despite an a priori unfavorable voting system.
The united left within the Nupes will also have a large group in the new National Assembly. Do you think it will succeed in avoiding internal divisions and establishing itself as the first opposition group?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is both a winner and a loser: a winner because he brings a strong left in parliament around his strategy. From this point of view, surprise the artist, who showed his ability to not only create the event but also offer it! Undoubtedly it allowed disunity and initially weakened the left to reconnect with its historical thread. This makes a great leader. But the left is nevertheless contained and is therefore partly defeated: first to survive it has renounced many of its foundations both in the country and in secularism; then, as not the majority, the temptation would be great for all these elements unified by the communication and functional magic of Melenchonist neo-Guesdism to regain their autonomy and re-divide; he was finally somewhat robbed of amazement at the macronie’s failure to push the RN.
SEE ALSO – Marine Le Pen has announced that he will not continue to be the presidency of the National Rally