Guyanese President Mohamed Irfaan Ali and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro shook hands at a meeting in Georgetown, Guyana on May 6, 2022.
©Keno GEORGE / AFP
In the climate of depression that has fallen in the West because of the war in Ukraine, then in China because of the continuation of Covid, there are still some havens of strong growth on the planet that can serve as lessons.
The IMF, the international monetary fund, has joined central bankers, the European Commission and most economic institutions in confirming that the recovery after Covid is now broken. A few weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, economists around the world revised their forecasts for global growth for 2022. The IMF expects global growth of 3.6%. First because the war in Ukraine blocked many projects. Then, because the confrontation and the toxic game between sanctions and counter-sanctions generated inflation of energy prices and agri-food products that threatened to spread throughout the economy. Finally, because China was paralyzed again, partly because of a new offensive on Covid-19. The IMF expects growth to fall by half this year, to about 4%, while Beijing has logic at more than 8%.
Europe was slowly deteriorating. After 7% growth in 2021, we will return to 2.5% for 2022. And again, provided the war does not harden yet. Economic organizations do not even dare to hope that the war will end before the end of the year. Many observers believe the wounds are such that this war could last for years.
In this depressed climate, because it’s distressing, there are still some islands of euphoric growth to watch because after all, their equation can provide ideas. To understand the rules of the game of the 7 countries that, in the world, maintain an iron morale to growth and prosperity, the statista.com office simply went through the IMF numbers.
French businessmen are more concerned about the economic weather than Germans or even Italians …
In fact, these 7 most active countries are divided into three tribes.
1 °) the Oil and Gas Tribe, which brings together the oil and gas producing countries.
– Guyana, for example, a small country in South America, will experience annual growth of 47%. This country discovered large oil reserves in 2020, and began to export it, making the country an El Dorado while the rest of the planet knelt in front of Covid 19.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, as will many of the major oil exporters who will also benefit from rising oil prices associated with the slowdown in activities in Russia. The expected growth in these countries is 9 and 10%.
2 °) The tribe we will call the Club Med tribe of the countries that have benefited from the rise in tourism. But in this tribe, the branch of the countries located in the Caribbean recovered the volume of growth (more than 10%). Including Barbados (11%), Saint Lucia (9.7%).These countries are at the top of the charts thanks to American customers.
3 °) There is another tribe that develops raw materials and especially rare lands, with suchleader, India, with 8% of economic growth also thanks to the strength of large and cheap labor power that can regain market share from China blocked by the Covid virus.
The most surprising phenomenon is the latest in class: Venezuela is in a bleak situation. Logically, Venezuela, one of the largest oil producers in the world, should benefit from this situation. But the opposite happened.Suffocated by an authoritarian power that allowed its economy to collapse, theezuela is still struggling with its wealth. Spot the error, this country is proof that economic growth does not want dictatorships.
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The company Statista Research, which went through all these numbers, recalls that the rate of change in Venezuela’s real gross domestic product has fallen by approximately 6.22% compared to 2014. It also noted that, according to estimates of the Fund’s international monetary policy, Venezuela’s GDP is expected to continue to decline. It reached a rate of decline of 16% in 2017. So, that year, Venezuela was the country in the world with the lowest growth in the world.
By the end of 2021, GDP will be only 24% of it before the crisis in 2013.
In 2022, the Venezuelan economy should finally stop shrinking, after an eight-year decline. According to the Central Bank of Venezuelathe government has reportedly succeeded in achieving inflation reduction through control measures that include restricting credit and lowering spending on the bolivar to maintain exchange rate stability.
In fact, the country’s hyperinflation will rise from 6,500% in 2020 to … 686.4% in 2021, the management that reigns in Caracas will really enjoy it. While the environment and the global situation can make this country king of oil.
Elisabeth Borne will be launching important reform projects, which will also allow her to forget the urgent renovation work that is upsetting public opinion.